The Rosenfeld Effect on Energy Efficiency: Simple, Effective, and Achievable Now

Arthur Rosenfeld Turns Off The Lights

California has been a world leader in energy-use and water-use efficiency for at least the past three decades.  Despite increasing energy demands via a variety of modern devices in California homes and businesses, the state’s residents today use about the same amount of electricity per capita that they used thirty years ago.  In the meantime, the per-capita electric power consumption of the rest of the USA has increased forty percent (40%).

California’s energy efficiency programs are largely attributable to Arthur H. Rosenfeld.  A pioneer in understanding communicating energy efficiency, Rosenfeld, a nuclear physicist, was appointed to the California Energy Commission in 2000.

According to the Los Angeles Times, California’s energy efficiency gains “…are so closely linked to Rosenfeld that they’ve been dubbed the Rosenfeld Effect in energy efficiency circles, where the 83-year-old has taken on rock star status.”

Energy Symposium: “The Rosenfeld Effect” held April 28, 2006 at the University of California, Berkeley

Arthur H. Rosenfeld Receives Enrico Fermi Award for Scientific Achievement

"Arthur Rosenfeld shows a lamp in his home developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that has two 55-watt fluorescent bulbs, each producing as much light as a 240-watt incandescent bulb. Rosenfeld is leaving the state's energy panel after two five-year terms." 
-- Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2009

Photograph by Peter DaSilva for The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2009.

Energy Conservation A Superior Alternative To New Power Sources

Rosenfeld recognized in the 1970s that conserving energy was and is cheaper and smarter than continually creating new power sources.  To prove this fact, Rosenfeld began collecting energy-use data and providing it to California energy regulators.  The result is borne out in California’s current energy efficiency standards that are now among the most effective in the world. 

For example, California recently enacted the nation’s first energy efficiency regulations for televisions sold in the state.  The rules, approved unanimously by the California Energy Commission, require cutting the amount of electricity used by new television set by one-third starting January 1, 2011.  On January 1, 2013, the electricity use of new sets must be cut by fifty percent.  According to Rosenfeld, Television-related power use has more than tripled since the sale of flat-panel TV sets began to increase in the early 2000s.  Rosenfeld’s data show that “TV-related power usage has more than tripled to ten (10) billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, accounting for nearly ten (10) percent of residential energy consumption.”

The Los Angeles Times reported on January 11, 2010:

“Rosenfeld was appointed to the Energy Commission by Gov. Gray Davis in 2000 and reappointed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005. In his last key vote as an energy commissioner, he applied that same conservative thinking to energy-guzzling big-screen televisions, which currently account for about one-tenth of residential power consumption in California.”

“New efficiency mandates go into effect Jan. 1, 2011, and become more stringent two years later. They're expected to save Californians $8 billion in energy costs over a decade. Some TV makers weren't happy. Rosenfeld wasn't surprised.”

"The first time we put standards on a product, we tend to get objections that this will be the ruin of civilization as we know it," he mused. "But then people get used to it."

*****

“Climate change experts say more heroes will be needed after last month's disappointing climate talks in Copenhagen, when major nations failed to sign a concrete agreement on carbon reduction. Rosenfeld is seen as an example of how dogged persistence at the local level can turn the impossible into the achievable.” -- Marc Lifsher in The Los Angeles Times, January 11, 2010

The 83-year-old Rosenfeld is leaving his California Energy Commission position the week of January 11, 2010.

Energy Efficiency Potential In The USA

"Heated Earth"
Earth image from Earthobservatory at NASA, Compiled by iStockphoto/Adam Korzekwa, Science Daily, January 28, 2009.

New McKinsey & Company Report Focuses On Barriers To Achieving Energy Efficiency

A significant tool in the portfolio of climate change solutions is improved energy efficiency across a broad range of applications throughout global society. Although energy efficiency has been widely touted as desirable for at least the past several decades, its full-scale potential remains far from being realized.

In July 2009, McKinsey & Company through its electric power and natural gas division published an important report entitled, “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy.”

"The report is the product of a year-long effort by McKinsey & Company in close collaboration with 13 leading U.S.-based companies, government agencies and environmental NGOs."

See both the Preface and pages 143-144 for lists of contributors.

The focus of the collaborators “…has been to identify what has prevented attractive efficiency opportunities from being captured in the past and evaluate potential measures to overcome these barriers. Our goal is to unlock the efficiency potential for more productive uses in the future.”

The report examines in detail the energy saving potential “…for greater efficiency in non-transportation uses of energy…” and reaches this central conclusion:

“Energy efficiency offers a vast, low-cost energy resource for the U.S. economy – but only if the nation can craft a comprehensive and innovative approach to unlock it. Significant and persistent barriers will need to be addressed at multiple levels to stimulate demand for energy efficiency and manage its delivery across more than 100 million buildings and literally billions of devices. If executed at scale, a holistic approach would yield gross energy savings worth more than $1.2 trillion, well above the $520 billion needed through 2020 for upfront investment in efficiency measures (not including program costs). Such a program is estimated to reduce end-use energy consumption in 2020 by 9.1 quadrillion BTUs, roughly 23 percent of projected demand, potentially abating up to 1.1 gigatons of greenhouse gases annually.”

The report acknowledges that decline in energy demand attributed to energy efficiency is only one tool in reducing carbon-emitting energy production. There will be demand for new clean energy power plants, both to serve regions of growth and to retire “…economically or environmentally obsolete energy infrastructure…” such as nearly all existing coal-fired power plants.

The collaborators reaffirm that energy efficiency represents an emissions-free energy resource. “If captured at full potential, energy efficiency would abate approximately 1.1 gigatons CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent; also, CDE) of greenhouse gas emissions per year in 2020 relative to BAU (Business-As-Usual) projections, and could serve as an important bridge to a future era of advanced low-carbon supply-side energy options."

[For BAU = Business-As-Usual projections, the collaborators used the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2008 to focus on the 81 percent of non-transportation energy with end uses that the collaborators were able to attribute.]

The report has a thorough glossary, a detailed explanation of methodology, a 20-page reference list, and sidebars to explain and complement the highly informative graphics.

The graphs throughout are very informative. For example, the graphic on page 11 shows itemized energy efficiency potential -- expressed as cost savings -- for building components and other actions relative to the year 2020.

You can download the 165-page document as a 6.4-megabyte .pdf file:

McKinsey & Company, 2009, Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy: McKinsey Global Energy and Materials, Electric Power & Natural Gas, July 2009, 165p.

Another way to look at energy efficiency potential is a flow chart recently published by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the U.S. Department of Energy. The diagram shows "Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2008: ~99.2 Quads."

[One Quad = 1 quadrillion BTUs]

The flow chart shows a grey box in the upper right labeled "Rejected Energy 57.07 (Quads)".

[1 Quad = approximately 293,071,000 megawatt hours.]

"Rejected Energy" means that out of 99.2 Quads produced from all energy sources, about 57.5% (fifty-seven and one-half percent) is wasted. Wasted energy is that energy produced that is not used for the services we demand, labeled as "Energy Services" on the flow chart. Improved energy efficiency would make better use of that wasted energy and/or would reduce total energy demand.

In a typical statement on USA energy waste, Clark Energy Group (2009) says:

“Electricity from the (USA) grid is tremendously inefficient as less than half of the energy utilized to produce grid electricity is used productively. In fact, much of grid electricity’s energy is lost from waste heat during the generation process, transmission losses, converting between AC and DC current, and the like.”

Click on the chart below to enlarge it and make it more readable.

Flow Chart for Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2008: ~ 99.2 Quads.
Graphic prepared by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. Department of Energy.

Solar Choices And Costs For Homes & Businesses

Heliodyne Offers Web-Based Courses On Installing Solar Thermal Systems


The New Mexico Coalition for Clean and Affordable Energy (NMCCAE) and the New Mexico Solar Energy Association (NMSEA) offer an 8-page document on solar energy for homes, businesses, and agricultural entities.





The guidebook, "How to Go Solar Using New Mexico's New Solar Energy Incentives," is a basic introduction for getting involved with solar energy.

Although specific to New Mexico in terms of reference information, the guidebook offers sound advice for potential residential, business and agricultural solar customers anywhere.

The guidebook has information on registering one's solar rights, descriptions of types of solar systems, estimated costs of solar systems, and putting together incentives such as solar tax credits.

The guidebook covers solar photovoltaic and active solar thermal heating systems -- the systems that use panels to collect solar energy. NMSEA and many others offer information on passive solar systems that are typically used for heating and cooling. A well designed passive solar home in New Mexico -- and other areas with cold but sunny winters -- saves about 80 (eighty) percent of the off-site energy purchased to heat and cool an average home.

The NMCCAE and NMSEA urge those considering solar systems to move carefully, be patient, and research options according to one's needs and budget. In many cases, low-cost or no-cost energy efficiency improvements will be a more economical solution than solar electric or solar thermal installations.

Look for restrictions such as homeowner covenants, historical district standards, etc. that affect your home or business.

Register and protect your solar rights under the New Mexico Solar Rights Law. You have the right to prevent nearby construction or other activities that will shade your solar system, but only if you register your rights and inform your neighbors.

Understand different types of solar systems and their costs.

• Solar Hot Water Systems provide domestic hot water.
• Large Solar Hot Water systems provide hot water for air heating.
• Direct Solar Hot Air Systems provide air heating.
• Grid-Tied Solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems provide solar electricity without batteries.
• Off-grid Solar Photovoltaic Systems provide solar electricity using batteries.

Positive Energy 1.5-kilowatt grid-tied solar panel array on a garage rooftop, Santa Fe, New Mexico. Positive Energy provides an instructive Photo Gallery of different types of solar systems and components of these systems.

Look at the incentives available to you. Incentives change frequently in the fast growing solar energy field, so check the links provided in the guidebook for updated information.

The Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) in May 2009 created DSIRE Solar.

"DSIRE SOLAR is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility, and federal incentives and policies that promote the adoption of solar technologies. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Program, DSIRE SOLAR is a new component of the DSIRE project that provides solar-specific policy information to consumers, policy makers, program administrators, the solar industry and other stakeholders."

For any USA state, one may search DSIRE Solar for incentives for either solar electric, solar thermal, or both technologies.

Locate a reputable installer. The North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners (NABCEP) is training and certifying solar PV installers and will soon be training and certifying solar thermal installers. Beware of installers who suggest solar systems not be inspected. Report problems with installers to the Renewable Energy Industries Association of New Mexico and/or your local chamber of commerce or better business bureau.

The "How to Go Solar" guidebook was originally published in April, 2007. The guidebook is updated from time to time as new incentives and other information become available. See the NMCCAE and NMSEA web sites for current information.

Heliodyne, Inc. Offers Online Training For Installing Solar Thermal Systems

Heliodyne, Inc. Solar Thermal Roof Mounted Flat Plate Collector. Our Sun heats water in conduits inside the panel. Heated water flows into a tank or other storage system inside the building. A pump returns cooler water to the panel. Water flows in and out of the collector panel through the two silver pipes seen in the image.

Heliodyne, Inc. of Richmond, California announced on May 11, 2009 that it now offers web-based courses for trade professionals interested in installing solar thermal systems.

"Training includes topics such as solar hot water fundamentals, sales and quoting, sizing, installation and service and maintenance. The subjects are broken down into short lessons, which the student can study at his or her own pace from the convenience of his or her home or office.

"

"The beginner’s course is intended to educate professionals on solar hot water theory along with proper installation techniques." 



"'Utilizing the internet as a medium to train and educate plumbers, builders, dealers, engineers, architects, planners and other relevant industry professionals is an ideal solution since we can reach so many without the inconvenience and expense of travel,' said Robert Cooley, training manager at Heliodyne."

Reegle Launches A Map Of The Clean Energy World

The Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) announced on April 27, 2009 that it now provides a global map to assist researchers with information on clean energy topics by country.

The “Reegle Maps” application provides a visual entry point to clean energy news and projects by countries and regions. The map allows searches by sectors under the major headings of:

• Climate Protection
• Cogeneration
• District Heating Systems
• Energy Efficiency
• Renewable Energy
• Rural Electrification,
  
• ...and many subheadings under these major headings.

“Reegle acts as a unique state-of-the-art search engine, targeting specific stakeholders including governments, project developers, businesses, financiers, NGOs, academia, international organizations and civil society.”

“Reegle’s information gateway provides information and data on all the various sub-sectors within sustainable energy at a global level including:

• Jurisdiction and laws
• News and announcements
• Political declarations and discussion papers
• Project activity and financial reports
• Statistical data
• Studies, manuals and reports
• Tenders, grants and bids”

The REEEP was launched at the Johannesburg, South Africa World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002. The REEEP’s goal is to accelerate the global marketplace for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The partner organizations actively facilitate financing mechanisms for sustainable energy projects, and structure policy initiatives for clean energy markets.

The REEEP lists of partners, international organizations, MOU organizations, governments, and international processes offers an impressive overview of global attention to creating a new energy economy.

USA National Science Board Wants Your Input On A Sustainable Energy Future

NSB Task Force on Sustainable Energy Public Review and Comment Opportunity

The USA National Science Board released for public review and comments the 61-page draft report, Building a Sustainable Energy Future (NSB-09-35) and dated April 10, 2009.

The report contains a wealth of information on USA energy science, technology, economics and policy by way of tight summaries based on an extensive reference list.

The public invitation for review and comments says:

"The fundamental transformation of the current extractive U.S. fossil fuel energy economy to a sustainable energy economy is a critical grand challenge facing the Nation today."

"Transforming toward a sustainable energy economy requires national leadership and coordination, a new U.S. energy policy framework, and robust support for sustainable energy research, development, demonstration, deployment, and education (RD3E). In its report, the Board makes a number of recommendations to the U.S. Government and offers guidance to the National Science Foundation."

"Given the importance to promote national security through increasing U.S. energy independence, ensure environmental stewardship and reduce energy and carbon intensity, and generate continued economic growth through innovation in energy technologies and increases in green jobs, we hope that you will take this opportunity to express your views on the draft report."

"Submit comments by Friday, May 1, 2009, to Tami Tamashiro, Executive Secretary, Task Force on Sustainable Energy, at NSBenergy@nsf.gov. If you have any questions, contact Ms. Tamashiro at (703) 292-7000."

From the report:

U.S. Energy Supply (p. 9-10):

Today, 85 percent of the U.S. energy supply comes from the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, natural gas, and coal), and nuclear electric power provides 8 percent. Sustainable energy sources derived from water (hydroelectric), geothermal, wind, sun (solar), and biomass account for the remaining 7 percent of the U.S. energy supply. Dramatic advances and investment in the production, storage, and distribution of U.S. sustainable energy sources are needed to increase the level of sustainable energy supplies.

U.S. Energy Consumption (p. 10):

U.S. energy consumption varies by economic sector and by energy source. About one-third of energy delivered in the United States is consumed by the industrial sector, and one-half of that is consumed by three industries (bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, and paper products). The transportation sector accounts for the second highest share of total end-use consumption at 29 percent, followed by the residential sector at 21 percent and the commercial sector at 18 percent.

Across all sectors, petroleum is the highest energy source at around 40 percent, followed by natural gas (23 percent), coal (22 percent), nuclear electric power (8 percent), and renewable energy (7 percent). The transportation sector has historically consumed the most petroleum, with its petroleum consumption dramatically increasing over the past few decades. In 2007, petroleum accounted for 95 percent of the transportation sector’s energy consumption.

Recommendation 2: Boost R&D Investment (p. 16-17): Increase Federal investment in sustainable energy R&D

• Support a range of sustainable energy alternatives, their enabling infrastructure, and their effective demonstration and deployment. Funding should support investigation into a wide range of sustainable energy RD3E topics, including, but not limited to:

Advanced, sustainable nuclear power;

Alternative vehicles and transportation technologies;

Basic S&E research that feeds into applied energy technologies;

Behavioral sciences as it relates to energy consumption;

Carbon capture and sequestration;

Economic models and assessments related to sustainable energy;

Energy efficiency technologies at all levels of generation, transmission, distribution and consumption;

Energy storage;

Information and communications technologies that can help conserve energy and/or use it more efficiently, such as broadband cyberinfrastructure;

Renewable energy supply technologies (e.g., solar, wind, geothermal,
hydroelectric, biomass/biofuels, kinetic, tidal, wave, ocean thermal technologies);

Smart grid;

“Systems” approach to large-scale sustainability solutions, including full life-cycle analyses of energy systems (e.g., advanced fossil-fuel technologies andbiomass-derived fuels); and

Zero-energy buildings.


Recommendation 3: Facilitate Essential Policies (p. 17):

Consider stable policies that facilitate discovery, development, deployment, and
commercialization of sustainable energy technologies to reflect advances in basic and applied
research

• Understand the explicit and implicit subsidies of current energy sources that impede conversion to the use of sustainable energy sources, and actively work to establish research-based strategies that encourage greater market deployment of sustainable energy technologies.

Conclusion (p. 22):

This report marks a concerted effort by the Board to join with colleagues and stakeholders throughout the Federal, private, academic, and nonprofit sectors to address the challenges and opportunities for sustainable energy in the 21st century. The recommendations made herein to the U.S. Government strive to promote leadership of harmonized efforts in moving toward a sustainable energy economy. In addition, the Board offers guidance for NSF that aims to prioritize innovation in sustainable energy, by supporting sustainable energy RD3E that leads to the development and deployment of viable sustainable energy technologies. With resolve and invigorated initiative, the United States is positioned to successfully build and support a sustainable energy future.

Appendix A: History and Context of Sustainable Energy (p.25-44):

Provides interesting reading on the topics listed under Recommendation 2 above, the current state of USA energy supply and consumption, and a USA legislative timeline from President Truman's signing of the Atomic Energy Act (McMahon Act) in 1946 to President Obama's signing of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Solar Electric Power And Renewable Energy Futures For Colorado

SES Stirling Energy Systems Solar One Power Plant in the Mojave Desert near Barstow, CA will develop 500 megawatts (MW) of electricity generating capacity with an expansion option to 850 MW. The plant will use 20,000 to 34,000 solar Dish/Stirling concentrators like the ones shown here.

A recent report on the renewable energy future of Colorado assesses the state’s potential to meet its own renewable energy standards (RESs) while also producing renewable energy for export to other markets.

The report is entitled, “Connecting Colorado’s Renewable Resources to the Markets -- Report of the Colorado Senate Bill 07-091 Renewable Resource Generation Development Areas Task Force Revised Edition July 2008”

The 64-page document treats wind, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal power generation, and biomass, ethanol, and biodiesel fuels. The report sets these energies in the context of policy, economics, power transmission, land-use, and related elements. Importantly, the Task Force assesses electricity generation costs for different carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions penalty scenarios.

For wind and solar power, the Task Force identified “Generation Development Areas” or GDAs indicating power generation potential from specific regions of the state.

For wind power, the GDAs lie on the High Plains east of the Rocky Mountain Front and within which the Task Force found a potential for ninety-six (96) gigawatts (GW) of wind power generation. I will treat the implications of wind power development for Colorado and other regions in a future post.

For solar power, the Task Force defined two GDAs in the southern part of the state together having a potential to generate as much as thirteen hundred (1,300) gigawatts (GW) of electricity.

One "Central Solar Power" GDA is the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado. The other, larger GDA includes a region extending from the eastern base of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains well into the High Plains of southeastern Colorado along the Colorado-New Mexico border.

The Task Force acknowledges the impracticality of the 1,300-GW scale of generation, saying that all the land in the GDAs would need to be covered with solar generation equipment. Further, the 1,300-GW output would be more than one hundred (100) times the current peak energy demand for the state.

The Task Force makes no specific recommendation for the level of solar power generation, but says about two (2) percent of the total land area of the two GDAs would allow production of about twenty-six (26) gigawatts (GW) of electrical generation capacity.

The Task Force then describes three utility-scale solar technologies currently available and operating elsewhere in the USA and the world. These technologies are grouped under the heading of Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CTSP), frequently referred to in other reports and the media as Concentrating or Concentrated Solar Power (CSP).

The three technologies are Parabolic Trough Systems, Dish/Stirling Systems, and Solar Tower Systems. In each of these systems, large mirrors focus reflected solar radiation onto receivers that transform the intense heat into energy.

Parabolic Trough Systems focus solar radiation onto oil-filled pipes, and the heated oil is used to boil water, creating steam to drive electricity-generating turbines.



Sandia National Laboratories Researcher Rich Diver poses with a Parabolic Trough solar power concentrator, Albuquerque, NM, May 15, 2007. The parabolic mirrors focus sunlight on the oil filled pipe running above his head. The oil then flows though a heat exchanger to generate steam to power a turbine to generate electricity.

As illustrated by SES Stirling Energy Systems, Dish/Stirling Systems use large, mirrored, lens-shaped dishes to focus solar radiation on a Stirling engine mounted at the focal point of the lens. The heated fluid in the Stirling engine expands, creating pressure to drive pistons or turbines for electrical power generation.



The SES Stirling Energy Systems SunCatcher is a 25-kilowatt (kW) Solar Power System consisting of a 38-foot diameter dish structure that supports 82 curved glass mirrors. The system is also called a heliostat because it tracks the movement of the sun throughout the day. The device labeled "Power Conversion Unit (PCU)" is the Stirling engine and its housing.

Solar Tower Systems use a mirror array to concentrate and focus solar heat on a tower containing molten salt. The heated salt is used to produce steam to drive electricity-generating turbines.



Solar Tower System at Sandia National Laboratories National Solar Thermal Test Facility, Albuquerque, NM. In this 2006 view the nine-acre test facility at Sandia consists of a 200-foot-high solar tower, 212 computer-controlled mirrors called heliostats, and a separate five-story control tower. The heliostats focus sunlight on the tower to generate heat that produces steam to drive electricity-generating turbines.

Each of these three industrial-sale systems has different land-use and water-use requirements plus heat storage potential across a broad range of existing and evolving technologies. Despite many references to steam, the Task Force does not assess water use for different industrial-scale solar power systems in the July 2008 revision of its report.

In fact, Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower Systems can either consume significant quantities of water through evaporation as steam, or they can minimize water consumption using closed-loop and other dry-cooling systems. Dish/Stirling Systems operate at high temperatures, and require essentially no water other than what is needed to wash the mirrors from time to time.

The U.S. Department of Energy, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in 2006 published comparative water uses for coal, coal IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle), other fossil fuels, biomass, nuclear, geothermal steam, solar trough, solar tower, natural gas, and hydroelectric power. This report for the USA Congress is entitled “Energy Demands on Water Resources,” and the water demand tables are on pages 17 and 38.

I will devote a future post to land- and water-use requirements for specific renewable energy technologies. I will also devote a separate post to rapidly developing opportunities and technologies for storing solar and other forms of renewable energy.

In concluding the section on solar power generation potential for Colorado, the Task Force discusses solar photovoltaic systems (Solar PV), distributed solar photovoltaics (DG), and current and necessary future policy for Colorado regarding solar power development.

The Wedge Game – Solving the Climate Problem By 2055

Targets For Legislative Proposals In The USA Congress Of Mandatory Cap And Trade Programs For Greenhouse Gases Emissions, courtesy of World Resources Institute (WRI) – December 8, 2008.

The top (red) line shows historical and projected carbon emissions for the USA for 1990-2050 under conditions of "business as usual." The other lines show estimated carbon emissions reductions trends for 2010-2050 under different legislative proposals.

WRI offers a high resolution image of this graph plus details about the methodology, assumptions and references that went into creating it. WRI updates the graph each year.


A World In Transition

In the brief span of about two years – between the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2009 – our global society has greatly accelerated its transformation towards a new energy economy. Considering where we were just two short years ago, those of us in the business of climate change and economic improvement solutions should be very encouraged by this progress. In late 2006, global warming and climate change science and solutions were barely on the radar of our general public and the popular media.

As we begin 2009, concrete measures to better understand our Earth’s systems together with actions to manage climate change dominate global news, global politics, and the thinking of people at all levels of our global societies. Two years ago, I would have told people that such an expansive level of activity was a decade or more away.

By about the middle of 2007, my correspondents and audiences were demanding a story far more comprehensive than scientific accounts of global warming and its impacts. People were demanding solutions. And like people everywhere, they were demanding (and offering) straightforward solutions. And most were (and remain) convinced that somehow there would be an easy-to-understand and easily implemented single solution. How do we fix this quickly? What is the single most important thing we can do? What technology do we need? How much will it cost?

Unfortunately, there is no “silver bullet” solution to drastically eliminating the bulk of our polluting greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in a reasonably short time. However, we can solve a major part of our emissions problems beginning now and using currently available technologies.

Often described as “silver shotgun” approaches, there are solutions scenarios that comprise several concurrent actions. These are actions that make sense physically, economically, and politically – actions that might be understandable and palatable across a broad spectrum of political, economic, cultural, spiritual and other viewpoints.

In 2004, prominent carbon management researchers Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow of Princeton University introduced the “stabilization wedges” concept for solving our climate problem for the next 50 years using current technologies. This work continues to advance, and now is a joint project of Princeton University, BP, and Ford Motor Company. The project is called the Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI), and it seeks practical solutions to the greenhouse gases emissions problem.



The “stabilization wedges” concept is based upon using a suite of seven low-carbon energy technologies and enhancing natural carbon sinks. The concept name comes from the “wedge” or cut in emissions depicted on a graph of carbon emissions projected for 2005 – 2055. Each “wedge” represents a carbon-cutting strategy that can grow from zero in 2005 to one billion tons of carbon emissions by 2055.

Thus, pursuing seven “wedge” strategies would cut carbon emissions by seven billion tons, keeping global carbon emissions flat for the next 50 years. Pursuing more than seven strategies would reduce our carbon emissions below today’s levels by 2055. The CMI demonstrates that at least 15 “wedge” strategies are available now, showing there is already a more than adequate portfolio of tools available today to control carbon emissions for the next 50 years.



The CMI shows opportunities for cutting carbon emissions using current technologies in combinations of actions under these headings:

Efficiency & Conservation

Increased transport efficiency
Reducing miles traveled
Increased heating efficiency
Increased efficiency of electricity production

Fossil-Fuel-Based Strategies

Fuel switching (coal to gas)
Fossil-based electricity with carbon capture & storage (CCS)
Coal synfuels with CCS
Fossil-based hydrogen fuel with CCS

Nuclear Energy

Nuclear electricity

Renewables and Biostorage

Wind-generated electricity
Solar electricity
Wind-generated hydrogen fuel
Biofuels
Forest storage
Soil storage

The CMI provides briefs showing how GHG emissions reductions are calculated for each opportunity in this list. The briefs include commentaries on the pros and cons of each technology and how they interact with each other. The numbers in these commentaries should be useful to those wishing to understand the dimensions of combatting GHG emissions.

The CMI has produced a “Teachers Guide to the Stabilization Wedge Game.” This is a team-based exercise in which players build a portfolio of stabilization strategies and assess their impacts and costs. Those interested in explanations of our climate and carbon problem – and the relative contributions and costs of solutions using the strategies above – might want to examine this guide and its associated resources.

A significant feature of the “wedge” concept and game is that people may choose their preferred combinations of strategies from the above list, and reject strategies that might be less palatable for various political, economic or other reasons. For example, if you do not like current-technology nuclear or coal-fired electricity as a part of the suite of solutions, you can select a balancing alternative from the list of 15 opportunities. You might also consider the extra costs and benefits of substitututing compensating amounts of current-technology wind- and solar-generated electricity, for example.

New Mexico Energy Efficiency Strategy: Policy Options

Albuquerque, New Mexico, seen from the Northeast with Intersection of I-25 and I-40 in the foreground and Rio Grande in the background, Wikipedia, December 1, 2006.

The State of New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department (NMEMNRD) has just released a new 152-page report, "New Mexico Energy Efficiency Strategy: Policy Options" and Summary.

The report was prepared for the NMEMNRD, Ken Hughes, Project Coordinator, by the Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, ETC Group, LLC, and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

Those working at the state and local levels might want to obtain this document for reference in anticipation of rapid upgrades of the New Mexico statewide building code and upgrades in other states as well. For example, the Buildings and Appliances Policies options in the report include a recommendation to upgrade the New Mexico statewide building code toward greater energy efficiency in 2009 and every three years after that.

"The New Mexico Energy Efficiency Strategy contains 25 major policies, programs, or initiatives that could be implemented in order to accelerate energy efficiency improvements in the state and achieve the goals where possible. The policies save electricity, natural gas, or gasoline. These energy sources account for 77 percent of primary energy consumption in the state and 65 percent of energy consumption on a secondary (site) basis."

The 10 highest priorities in the report are these:

"Among the 25 options developed in this report, we suggest that 10 be viewed as high priority by the Governor, the Legislature, the Public Regulation Commission, and other key decision makers. These options provide the greatest energy savings and consequently the bulk of the economic and environmental benefits."

Expand Electric Utility Demand-Side Management Programs

Adopt Decoupling or Shareholder Incentives to Stimulate Greater Utility Support for Energy Efficiency Improvements

Expand Natural Gas Utility Energy Efficiency Programs

Upgrade Building Energy Codes and Fund Code Training and Enforcement

Expand Retrofit of Homes Occupied by Low-Income Families

Undertake an Industry Challenge and Recognition Program

Increase Energy Efficiency in the Oil and Gas Sector

Adopt Energy Efficiency Requirements for Public Colleges and Universities and Extend the Requirements for State Agencies

Reduce Per Capita Vehicle Use

Implement a Broad-Based Public Education Campaign

The report – unlike many proposals that miss or downplay the connection between energy generation and water use -- considers impacts on limited and declining water supply in New Mexico and the American Southwest:

“There also will be significant water savings, particularly from options that result in reduced operation of fossil-fuel based power plants because these plants consume sizable amounts of water in their cooling systems. We estimate that the options taken together will lower water consumption in power plants by approximately 3.65 billion gallons per year in 2020. This is equivalent to the annual water use of 60,000 typical Albuquerque [New Mexico] citizens. There will be additional water savings from increased adoption of energy and water-conserving devices such as resource-efficient clothes washers and dishwashers.”

The report concludes:

“By 2020, electricity use [in New Mexico] could be reduced by 24 percent, natural gas use by nearly 20 percent, and gasoline use by 26 percent, all in comparison to otherwise forecasted levels of per capita energy use that year.”