The Rosenfeld Effect on Energy Efficiency: Simple, Effective, and Achievable Now

Arthur Rosenfeld Turns Off The Lights

California has been a world leader in energy-use and water-use efficiency for at least the past three decades.  Despite increasing energy demands via a variety of modern devices in California homes and businesses, the state’s residents today use about the same amount of electricity per capita that they used thirty years ago.  In the meantime, the per-capita electric power consumption of the rest of the USA has increased forty percent (40%).

California’s energy efficiency programs are largely attributable to Arthur H. Rosenfeld.  A pioneer in understanding communicating energy efficiency, Rosenfeld, a nuclear physicist, was appointed to the California Energy Commission in 2000.

According to the Los Angeles Times, California’s energy efficiency gains “…are so closely linked to Rosenfeld that they’ve been dubbed the Rosenfeld Effect in energy efficiency circles, where the 83-year-old has taken on rock star status.”

Energy Symposium: “The Rosenfeld Effect” held April 28, 2006 at the University of California, Berkeley

Arthur H. Rosenfeld Receives Enrico Fermi Award for Scientific Achievement

"Arthur Rosenfeld shows a lamp in his home developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that has two 55-watt fluorescent bulbs, each producing as much light as a 240-watt incandescent bulb. Rosenfeld is leaving the state's energy panel after two five-year terms." 
-- Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2009

Photograph by Peter DaSilva for The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2009.

Energy Conservation A Superior Alternative To New Power Sources

Rosenfeld recognized in the 1970s that conserving energy was and is cheaper and smarter than continually creating new power sources.  To prove this fact, Rosenfeld began collecting energy-use data and providing it to California energy regulators.  The result is borne out in California’s current energy efficiency standards that are now among the most effective in the world. 

For example, California recently enacted the nation’s first energy efficiency regulations for televisions sold in the state.  The rules, approved unanimously by the California Energy Commission, require cutting the amount of electricity used by new television set by one-third starting January 1, 2011.  On January 1, 2013, the electricity use of new sets must be cut by fifty percent.  According to Rosenfeld, Television-related power use has more than tripled since the sale of flat-panel TV sets began to increase in the early 2000s.  Rosenfeld’s data show that “TV-related power usage has more than tripled to ten (10) billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, accounting for nearly ten (10) percent of residential energy consumption.”

The Los Angeles Times reported on January 11, 2010:

“Rosenfeld was appointed to the Energy Commission by Gov. Gray Davis in 2000 and reappointed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005. In his last key vote as an energy commissioner, he applied that same conservative thinking to energy-guzzling big-screen televisions, which currently account for about one-tenth of residential power consumption in California.”

“New efficiency mandates go into effect Jan. 1, 2011, and become more stringent two years later. They're expected to save Californians $8 billion in energy costs over a decade. Some TV makers weren't happy. Rosenfeld wasn't surprised.”

"The first time we put standards on a product, we tend to get objections that this will be the ruin of civilization as we know it," he mused. "But then people get used to it."

*****

“Climate change experts say more heroes will be needed after last month's disappointing climate talks in Copenhagen, when major nations failed to sign a concrete agreement on carbon reduction. Rosenfeld is seen as an example of how dogged persistence at the local level can turn the impossible into the achievable.” -- Marc Lifsher in The Los Angeles Times, January 11, 2010

The 83-year-old Rosenfeld is leaving his California Energy Commission position the week of January 11, 2010.

Energy Efficiency Potential In The USA

"Heated Earth"
Earth image from Earthobservatory at NASA, Compiled by iStockphoto/Adam Korzekwa, Science Daily, January 28, 2009.

New McKinsey & Company Report Focuses On Barriers To Achieving Energy Efficiency

A significant tool in the portfolio of climate change solutions is improved energy efficiency across a broad range of applications throughout global society. Although energy efficiency has been widely touted as desirable for at least the past several decades, its full-scale potential remains far from being realized.

In July 2009, McKinsey & Company through its electric power and natural gas division published an important report entitled, “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy.”

"The report is the product of a year-long effort by McKinsey & Company in close collaboration with 13 leading U.S.-based companies, government agencies and environmental NGOs."

See both the Preface and pages 143-144 for lists of contributors.

The focus of the collaborators “…has been to identify what has prevented attractive efficiency opportunities from being captured in the past and evaluate potential measures to overcome these barriers. Our goal is to unlock the efficiency potential for more productive uses in the future.”

The report examines in detail the energy saving potential “…for greater efficiency in non-transportation uses of energy…” and reaches this central conclusion:

“Energy efficiency offers a vast, low-cost energy resource for the U.S. economy – but only if the nation can craft a comprehensive and innovative approach to unlock it. Significant and persistent barriers will need to be addressed at multiple levels to stimulate demand for energy efficiency and manage its delivery across more than 100 million buildings and literally billions of devices. If executed at scale, a holistic approach would yield gross energy savings worth more than $1.2 trillion, well above the $520 billion needed through 2020 for upfront investment in efficiency measures (not including program costs). Such a program is estimated to reduce end-use energy consumption in 2020 by 9.1 quadrillion BTUs, roughly 23 percent of projected demand, potentially abating up to 1.1 gigatons of greenhouse gases annually.”

The report acknowledges that decline in energy demand attributed to energy efficiency is only one tool in reducing carbon-emitting energy production. There will be demand for new clean energy power plants, both to serve regions of growth and to retire “…economically or environmentally obsolete energy infrastructure…” such as nearly all existing coal-fired power plants.

The collaborators reaffirm that energy efficiency represents an emissions-free energy resource. “If captured at full potential, energy efficiency would abate approximately 1.1 gigatons CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent; also, CDE) of greenhouse gas emissions per year in 2020 relative to BAU (Business-As-Usual) projections, and could serve as an important bridge to a future era of advanced low-carbon supply-side energy options."

[For BAU = Business-As-Usual projections, the collaborators used the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2008 to focus on the 81 percent of non-transportation energy with end uses that the collaborators were able to attribute.]

The report has a thorough glossary, a detailed explanation of methodology, a 20-page reference list, and sidebars to explain and complement the highly informative graphics.

The graphs throughout are very informative. For example, the graphic on page 11 shows itemized energy efficiency potential -- expressed as cost savings -- for building components and other actions relative to the year 2020.

You can download the 165-page document as a 6.4-megabyte .pdf file:

McKinsey & Company, 2009, Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy: McKinsey Global Energy and Materials, Electric Power & Natural Gas, July 2009, 165p.

Another way to look at energy efficiency potential is a flow chart recently published by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the U.S. Department of Energy. The diagram shows "Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2008: ~99.2 Quads."

[One Quad = 1 quadrillion BTUs]

The flow chart shows a grey box in the upper right labeled "Rejected Energy 57.07 (Quads)".

[1 Quad = approximately 293,071,000 megawatt hours.]

"Rejected Energy" means that out of 99.2 Quads produced from all energy sources, about 57.5% (fifty-seven and one-half percent) is wasted. Wasted energy is that energy produced that is not used for the services we demand, labeled as "Energy Services" on the flow chart. Improved energy efficiency would make better use of that wasted energy and/or would reduce total energy demand.

In a typical statement on USA energy waste, Clark Energy Group (2009) says:

“Electricity from the (USA) grid is tremendously inefficient as less than half of the energy utilized to produce grid electricity is used productively. In fact, much of grid electricity’s energy is lost from waste heat during the generation process, transmission losses, converting between AC and DC current, and the like.”

Click on the chart below to enlarge it and make it more readable.

Flow Chart for Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2008: ~ 99.2 Quads.
Graphic prepared by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and U.S. Department of Energy.

Reegle Launches A Map Of The Clean Energy World

The Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP) announced on April 27, 2009 that it now provides a global map to assist researchers with information on clean energy topics by country.

The “Reegle Maps” application provides a visual entry point to clean energy news and projects by countries and regions. The map allows searches by sectors under the major headings of:

• Climate Protection
• Cogeneration
• District Heating Systems
• Energy Efficiency
• Renewable Energy
• Rural Electrification,
  
• ...and many subheadings under these major headings.

“Reegle acts as a unique state-of-the-art search engine, targeting specific stakeholders including governments, project developers, businesses, financiers, NGOs, academia, international organizations and civil society.”

“Reegle’s information gateway provides information and data on all the various sub-sectors within sustainable energy at a global level including:

• Jurisdiction and laws
• News and announcements
• Political declarations and discussion papers
• Project activity and financial reports
• Statistical data
• Studies, manuals and reports
• Tenders, grants and bids”

The REEEP was launched at the Johannesburg, South Africa World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002. The REEEP’s goal is to accelerate the global marketplace for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The partner organizations actively facilitate financing mechanisms for sustainable energy projects, and structure policy initiatives for clean energy markets.

The REEEP lists of partners, international organizations, MOU organizations, governments, and international processes offers an impressive overview of global attention to creating a new energy economy.

USA National Science Board Wants Your Input On A Sustainable Energy Future

NSB Task Force on Sustainable Energy Public Review and Comment Opportunity

The USA National Science Board released for public review and comments the 61-page draft report, Building a Sustainable Energy Future (NSB-09-35) and dated April 10, 2009.

The report contains a wealth of information on USA energy science, technology, economics and policy by way of tight summaries based on an extensive reference list.

The public invitation for review and comments says:

"The fundamental transformation of the current extractive U.S. fossil fuel energy economy to a sustainable energy economy is a critical grand challenge facing the Nation today."

"Transforming toward a sustainable energy economy requires national leadership and coordination, a new U.S. energy policy framework, and robust support for sustainable energy research, development, demonstration, deployment, and education (RD3E). In its report, the Board makes a number of recommendations to the U.S. Government and offers guidance to the National Science Foundation."

"Given the importance to promote national security through increasing U.S. energy independence, ensure environmental stewardship and reduce energy and carbon intensity, and generate continued economic growth through innovation in energy technologies and increases in green jobs, we hope that you will take this opportunity to express your views on the draft report."

"Submit comments by Friday, May 1, 2009, to Tami Tamashiro, Executive Secretary, Task Force on Sustainable Energy, at NSBenergy@nsf.gov. If you have any questions, contact Ms. Tamashiro at (703) 292-7000."

From the report:

U.S. Energy Supply (p. 9-10):

Today, 85 percent of the U.S. energy supply comes from the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, natural gas, and coal), and nuclear electric power provides 8 percent. Sustainable energy sources derived from water (hydroelectric), geothermal, wind, sun (solar), and biomass account for the remaining 7 percent of the U.S. energy supply. Dramatic advances and investment in the production, storage, and distribution of U.S. sustainable energy sources are needed to increase the level of sustainable energy supplies.

U.S. Energy Consumption (p. 10):

U.S. energy consumption varies by economic sector and by energy source. About one-third of energy delivered in the United States is consumed by the industrial sector, and one-half of that is consumed by three industries (bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, and paper products). The transportation sector accounts for the second highest share of total end-use consumption at 29 percent, followed by the residential sector at 21 percent and the commercial sector at 18 percent.

Across all sectors, petroleum is the highest energy source at around 40 percent, followed by natural gas (23 percent), coal (22 percent), nuclear electric power (8 percent), and renewable energy (7 percent). The transportation sector has historically consumed the most petroleum, with its petroleum consumption dramatically increasing over the past few decades. In 2007, petroleum accounted for 95 percent of the transportation sector’s energy consumption.

Recommendation 2: Boost R&D Investment (p. 16-17): Increase Federal investment in sustainable energy R&D

• Support a range of sustainable energy alternatives, their enabling infrastructure, and their effective demonstration and deployment. Funding should support investigation into a wide range of sustainable energy RD3E topics, including, but not limited to:

Advanced, sustainable nuclear power;

Alternative vehicles and transportation technologies;

Basic S&E research that feeds into applied energy technologies;

Behavioral sciences as it relates to energy consumption;

Carbon capture and sequestration;

Economic models and assessments related to sustainable energy;

Energy efficiency technologies at all levels of generation, transmission, distribution and consumption;

Energy storage;

Information and communications technologies that can help conserve energy and/or use it more efficiently, such as broadband cyberinfrastructure;

Renewable energy supply technologies (e.g., solar, wind, geothermal,
hydroelectric, biomass/biofuels, kinetic, tidal, wave, ocean thermal technologies);

Smart grid;

“Systems” approach to large-scale sustainability solutions, including full life-cycle analyses of energy systems (e.g., advanced fossil-fuel technologies andbiomass-derived fuels); and

Zero-energy buildings.


Recommendation 3: Facilitate Essential Policies (p. 17):

Consider stable policies that facilitate discovery, development, deployment, and
commercialization of sustainable energy technologies to reflect advances in basic and applied
research

• Understand the explicit and implicit subsidies of current energy sources that impede conversion to the use of sustainable energy sources, and actively work to establish research-based strategies that encourage greater market deployment of sustainable energy technologies.

Conclusion (p. 22):

This report marks a concerted effort by the Board to join with colleagues and stakeholders throughout the Federal, private, academic, and nonprofit sectors to address the challenges and opportunities for sustainable energy in the 21st century. The recommendations made herein to the U.S. Government strive to promote leadership of harmonized efforts in moving toward a sustainable energy economy. In addition, the Board offers guidance for NSF that aims to prioritize innovation in sustainable energy, by supporting sustainable energy RD3E that leads to the development and deployment of viable sustainable energy technologies. With resolve and invigorated initiative, the United States is positioned to successfully build and support a sustainable energy future.

Appendix A: History and Context of Sustainable Energy (p.25-44):

Provides interesting reading on the topics listed under Recommendation 2 above, the current state of USA energy supply and consumption, and a USA legislative timeline from President Truman's signing of the Atomic Energy Act (McMahon Act) in 1946 to President Obama's signing of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

South Africa To Produce 10,000 Gigawatt-Hours of Wind & Solar Energy Using Feed-In Tariffs

South Africa's National Energy Regulator (NERSA) in late March 2009 introduced a system of Feed-in Tariffs (FITs) intended to produce 10 (ten) Terawatt-hours (TWh) = 10,000 (ten thousand) Gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity generated from wind, solar, small hydro, and landfill gas for the country by 2013.

"Feed-In Tariffs - Boosting Energy For Our Future" Report Front Cover, World Future Council, Hamburg, Germany, 2008.

Feed-In Tariffs For South Africa:

A March 31, 2009 Media Announcement briefs the NERSA Decision on Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT).

The 40-page report, South Africa Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) - Regulatory Guidelines 26 March, 2009, states in its introduction:

"Grid connected renewable energy is currently the fastest growing sector in the global energy market. Installed global wind capacity at the start of 2008 is in the order of 90GW, with total world installed capacity having doubled since 2004. India, China, the United States, Spain and Germany together added over 20GW of wind power in 2007. China and India each are currently installing wind electricity in excess of 1GW per annum and both have targets of achieving over 10GW by 2015. The capacity of grid connected solar PV has also quadrupled from an installed capacity of 2GW in 2004 to approaching 8GW at the end of 2007. Commercial-scale solar thermal power plants are also under construction in countries such as the US and Spain. Targets for the promotion of renewable energy now exist in more than 58 countries, of which 13 are developing countries."

'The renewable energy industry is now a major economic player, with the industry employing over 2.5 million people worldwide. Renewable energy companies have grown significantly in size in recent years, with the market capitalisation of publicly traded renewables companies doubling from $50 billion to $100 billion in just two years (2005-7)."

"South Africa has a high level of renewable energy potential and presently has in place targets of 10,000 GWh of renewable energy by 2013. To contribute towards this target and towards socio-economic and environmentally sustainable growth, and kick start and stimulate the renewable energy industry in South Africa, there is a need to establish an appropriate market mechanism."

"Feed-in Tariffs (FIT) are, in essence, guaranteed prices for electricity supply rather than conventional consumer tariffs. The basic economic principle underpinning the FITs is the establishment of a tariff (price) that covers the cost of generation plus a "reasonable profit" to induce developers to invest. This is quite similar to the concept of cost recovery used in utility rate regulation based on the costs of capital."

"Under this approach it becomes economically appropriate to award different tariffs for different technologies. The price for the electricity produced should be set at a level and for a period that provides a reasonable return on investment for a specific technology. The tariff should also be certain and long term enough to allow for project financing to be raised by the project."

"Feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy have now been adopted in over 36 countries around the world, including Spain and Germany and a number of states in the US, and also including developing nations such as Turkey, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Nicaragua, Indonesia, Ecuador, China, Brazil, Argentina and most recently Kenya."

"The establishment of the Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT) in South Africa will provide an excellent opportunity for South Africa to increase the deployment of renewable energy in the country and contribute towards the sustained growth of the sector in the country, the region and internationally."






"Feed-In Tariffs - Boosting Energy For Our Future" Report Back Cover, World Future Council, Hamburg, Germany, 2008.

Hybrid CSTP/Natural Gas Power Plant Under Construction In Florida

The following information supplements the post of December 7, 2008 on a co-located solar/natural gas-fired power plant in Indiantown, Florida.

Co-locating industrial-scale solar power plants with existing fossil-fuel fired power plants can be an economical solution to power transmission and other problems. Co-location allows clean energy to be phased in as fossil-fuel energy is phased out, with the fossil-fuel energy plant becoming a backup, then eventually becoming unnecessary as solar heat storage technology improves.

Solar radiation is available onsite, whereas fossil fuels must be continually mined and transported to the old-technology plant. Co-locating solar power on the existing plant site takes advantage of transmission infrastructure already in place, avoiding costs of building extensive new transmission lines. Solar power plants avoid many of the water-use and land- and water-pollution problems of old-technology power plants. Thus, opportunities for land and water systems restoration after abandoning fossil-fuel power plants will increase substantially.

Lauren Engineers & Constructors and Florida Power & Light Company Building Martin Next Generation Solar Energy Center in Indiantown, Florida.

Lauren Engineers & Constructors is working with NextEra Energy Resources, a Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) Group Company on a new 75-megawatt (MW) concentrating solar thermal power (CSTP or CSP) facility.

The CSTP part of the facility will employ parabolic trough mirror technology and include approximately 180,000 parabolic mirrors on 500 acres of land. Solar power output is expected to be 155,000 megawatt-hours (MWhr) annually.

Artist's Conception of the FPL Martin Concentrating Solar Thermal/Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant, Indiantown, Florida.

Lauren Engineers & Constructors also worked with ACCIONA to build the Nevada Solar One Power Plant, a 64 MW parabolic mirror facility located in Boulder City, Nevada. This plant went online in June, 2007.








Nevada Solar One Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSTP) Plant, Boulder City, Nevada. This facility uses parabolic mirror technology and 182,000 curved mirrors, occupies 400 acres of land, and generates 64 megawatts (MW) of power. The plant began operating in June, 2007. Photograph: CNET News, March 12, 2007.


















Detail views of Nevada Solar One CSTP Plant showing parabolic mirror arrangement. The parabolic mirrors are aligned on north-south axes, and rotate from east to west throughout the day to track the sun. The mirrors focus sunlight on an oil-filled pipe that carries the heated oil to a heat exchanger. The heat exchanger creates steam that powers an electricity-generating turbine. Photographs: Acciona U.S. Projects.

USA Installs 1,265 Megawatts (MW) Of Solar Power In 2008

New Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) Report Details Solar Power Growth In The USA.

Xcel/SunEdison solar photovoltaic heliostats, 8.24 Megawatt (MW) Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Powerplant, San Luis Valley near Mosca, Colorado. This powerplant was activated in December 2007. View is eastward towards Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Photograph by L.A. Brown, March 18, 2009.

The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) released its 12-page summary report, 2008 U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review.

The report states 1,265 megawatts (MW) of solar power of all varieties were installed in the USA in 2008. These include 342 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, 139 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating, 762 MWTh of pool heating, and an estimated 21 MW of solar space heating and cooling.

Surface detail of Xcel/SunEdison solar PV heliostat, Mosca, Colorado, showing reflective metal triangular ridges that focus solar radiation on solar PV receptors. Photograph by L.A. Brown, March 18, 2009.

California was the leader among state grid-tied PV installations with 178.6 MW, New Jersey followed with 22.5 MW installed, Colorado was next at 21.6 MW, Nevada installed 13.9 MW and Hawaii with 11.3 MW. For solar water heating systems, Hawaii led states, installing 37 percent of the total U.S. systems in 2008, followed by Florida at 20 percent, California with 7 percent and both Colorado and Arizona with 5 percent. The Mid-Atlantic States, an important emerging region for solar, installed 7 percent of solar water heating systems.

Close-up of solar PV receptors and reflective metal triangular ridges, Xcel/SunEdison heliostat, Mosca, Colorado. Note dirt on panel surfaces and dents in metal reflectors caused by hail. Photograph by L.A. Brown, March 18, 2009.

The SEIA report indicates solar PV manufacturing capacity in the USA increased by 65 percent in 2008. this created many new jobs in California, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon and Tennessee. Total solar power production capacity in those five states now stands at approximately 685 megawatts (MW).


















Solar panels, Xcel/SunEdison 8.24 MW Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant, Mosca, Colorado. These panels are supported by north-south aligned axles that rotate the panels from east to west throughout the day to track the sun. View is northeastward in the afternoon towards the Sangre de Cristo Mountains that form the eastern border of the San Luis Valley. Photograph by L.A. Brown, March 18, 2009.

The SEIA report notes that no new concentrating solar power (CSP) plants came online in the USA in 2008. However, CSP projects in the planning or construction stages currently total more than six gigawatts (GW; 6 GW = 6,000 megawatts). Among these are projects planned for California's Mojave Desert, Arizona and Florida.

Tracking The Sun

Solar Panels On Rooftops, Ohta, Japan, Focus Solar, 2008

Solar Photovoltaic Power Costs In USA Drop 30 Percent Over Past Decade

The Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California released a new report, “Tracking the Sun,” that documents the installed costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in the USA from 1998-2007.

The February 27, 2009 revision of the 42-page document indicates a positive outlook for the future of customer economics of solar PV. Primary indicators include an oversupply of solar PV modules in the near future together with lifting the cap on the Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for residential PV will reduce costs for residential installations. Large commercial solar PV promises to be the dominant growth market because of economies of scale, but both large and small solar PV systems stand to make major gains in reduced costs per unit of energy generated.

The report examines 37,000 grid-connected solar PV systems installed in 12 USA states from 1998-2007. Among these, average costs before financial incentives or tax credits declined from $10.50 per watt in 1998 to $7.6 per watt in 2007 – roughly a 35 percent cost reduction over ten years.

Non-module costs such as inverters, mounting hardware, labor, permitting and fees, shipping, overhead, taxes and profit were responsible for the bulk of cost reductions.

Systems less than 5 kilowatts in size exhibited the largest cost reductions; however, data are lacking for larger solar PV systems with output greater than 100 kilowatts.

Average costs for all systems flattened and remained almost unchanged from 2005-2007.

Installed costs of solar PV show economies of scale. Systems less than 2 kilowatts averaged about $9.00 per watt in 2006-2007, and systems greater than 750 kilowatts averaged about $6.80 per watt during the same period.

State and utility cash incentives for solar PV installations declined from 2002 through 2007.

The increase in the Federal ITC in 2006 tended to stimulate commercial-scale solar PV from 2007-2009; however, residential solar PV should gain cost advantages in 2009 with changes in the Federal residential ITC.

In its introduction, the report says: “Despite the significant year-on-year growth, however, the share of global and U.S. electricity supply met with PV remains small, and annual PV additions are currently modest in the context of the overall electric system.”

Nonetheless, the growth of solar PV is encouraging. The data on its declining costs with time offer a promise of even more accelerated growth in the next few years.

A February 25, 2009 brief at WorldChanging expands upon the following:

Business Green reported on February 23, 2009 that the price of solar PV panels could fall by as much as 40 percent by the end of this year. Other analysts have been predicting this price drop that is based on huge increases in polysilicon supplies leading to a drop in production costs.

New Energy Finance also predicts a fall in solar PV module prices because of recent global investments in increasing silicon production.

China-based solar PV panel manufacturer Suntech Power Holdings estimates that demand from the USA could reach 700 megawatts (MW) during 2009 as a result of President Obama’s new stimulus package.

Climate Progress suggests if the dramatic price drop for solar PV panels materializes, solar PV will become "...one of the largest job-creating industries of the century, projected to grow from $20 billion two years ago to a $74 billion industry by 2017."